What will happen 2016

Oil prices go up, the rouble stabilises and sky-high approval ratings last through the autumn parliamentary elections. The economy continues to tank, real wages fall. The middle class, shorn of the weekends in Europe and consumer goods it was used to, becomes edgy, while workers pushed to economic dire straits begin serious protests — a flicker of which was visible at the end of as long-distance truckers went on strike. Both of these scenarios are eminently possible; what actually happens will probably be somewhere in the middle.

Events such as the revolution in Ukraine or the Turkish shooting down of a Russian jet can completely change policy vectors and outcomes. Shaun Walker in Moscow. As the Olympics approach, nervousness over whether the venues will be ready in time has decreased but has been replaced by worries over everything from police brutality to an ever widening corruption scandal and an economic slump that has led to fears over ticket sales.

Budgets have been trimmed and the sense of optimism that pervaded the bid has been replaced by something close to foreboding. And it is one that should worry the International Olympic Committee as it contemplates a landscape in which cities are no longer queuing up in quite the same way to host their showpiece event. The other big question is whether Russian athletes will line up on the athletics track, after being banned for an indefinite period over systemic state-sponsored doping.

They almost certainly will, given the wider politics at play, but the taint of the scandal will not go away. Yet the signs are that fans are more likely to travel and party in defiance than stay away in fear. Meanwhile, the fallout at Fifa and the International Association of Athletics Federations IAAF from 12 months of jaw-dropping developments will continue as criminal investigations into deep-seated corruption progress.

The currently suspended Sepp Blatter will formally relinquish his hold over Fifa in February but it remains to be seen if any of the unimpressive cast of potential replacements offers the prospect of real reform, while the embattled IAAF president, Sebastian Coe , faces the hardest race of his life in resurrecting his crisis-hit sport. Owen Gibson. In an unprecedented meeting of minds, Greek and Turkish Cypriots regard the year ahead as the last best chance to end the ethnic divide.

Greek Cypriots, emerging from their worst economic crisis since an attempt at union with Athens prompted Ankara to invade in , have increasingly come round to seeing the benefits of reunification. For the minority Turkish Cypriots, the rationale is not dissimilar. A reunited Cyprus would, they say, not only offer a better and brighter future in an EU member state but in a country that, in sharp contrast to Turkey , is avowedly secular.

But it is the stance of Turkey itself that gives the biggest hope. Both sides are engaged in intense negotiations with a view to holding referendums once an agreement is clinched. But they have yet to discuss the issues of property, security and territory, all potential deal breakers. Parliamentary elections in the south loom, another spoiler if hardline rejectionists have their way.

By the end of , there will be a new UN secretary general and there is a better than even chance it will be a woman, for the first time. Whether this will make any real difference to the world is unclear. You get to rub shoulders with a lot of powerful people, but rarely on equal terms. If the rules of the game remain unchanged, with the permanent five members of the security council choosing his successor in secret and presenting the result to the rest of the world as a fait accompli, we can expect a similar outcome.

There is a growing drive, however, to change the rules and throw the contest open to the light of public scrutiny. The 1 for 7 Billion campaign, backed by hundreds of NGOs, is proposing an official shortlist of candidates who will have to publish broad manifestos and subject themselves to questions. The security council would still present a shortlist, but it would have to be a list of more than one. More than million people around the world have signalled their support.

The idea is to produce someone who is less secretary and more general, with a broad power base and an independent mandate, rather than to be beholden to some murky backroom deal. There are signs that the security council is beginning to take heed of the groundswell. In an initiative pushed by the UK, a letter is to be sent to the delegations in the general assembly in the New Year inviting candidates and setting a timetable and format for the election. Until then, the campaign among aspiring secretary generals continues to be a discreet affair, mostly played out in private by unannounced candidates behind closed doors in midtown Manhattan.

At this early stage, the conventional wisdom favours someone from eastern Europe a region yet to take a turn in providing a secretary general and a woman all eight holders of the position thus far have been men. Not even the idealists in the 1 for 7 Billion campaign believe the permanent five are going to give up the veto and throw the vote open completely. But the hope is that the major powers hit deadlock over their own favourites and find themselves unable to resist a genuinely popular choice thrown up by the general assembly.

Whichever way it goes, it will be a critical year in UN history. Julian Borger in London. What will happen in ? Written in the sand … Photograph: Alamy.

The Oxford Economics prediction shows Biden winning over Trump by a margin of 65 percent to 35 percent. Back in , Abramowitz took into consideration GDP growth, presidential approval rating and the number of years each main party Republicans and Democrats held the presidency. This led him to project that the GOP candidate—Trump—would win with more than 51 percent of the vote. Although Abramowitz did not respond to Newsweek 's request for comment, he published a paper on August 4 that said his model showed Trump only had about a 30 percent chance of winning in this election cycle.

Of course, projections are just highly educated guesses. But as these four academics got it right in , their predictions appear to many to be more credible than those suggesting Clinton would win by a significant margin.

When tallying up their predictions for , Biden appears to be favored; with two calling the election for Biden, one pointing to a Trump victory and the other suggesting his model doesn't account for the impact of the ongoing novel coronavirus pandemic. Read more. Newsweek magazine delivered to your door Unlimited access to Newsweek.

Unlimited access to Newsweek. They are not mutually exclusive. Where have we been? An across-the-aisle examination, and critique, of the candidates, the press, political punditry, and even an analysis of how he, a conservative libertarian, ended up endorsing Hillary Clinton.

I look forward to the companion volume, What the Hell Happens Next? Of course they do. But are they also deluded? Are they also insane? Are they receiving radio broadcasts on their dental fillings telling them they have what it takes to be a good president?

Share This.