During Donald Trump 's successful campaign for the U. Though Trump's victory is often seen as a sui generis event, one only possible in a celebrity-saturated culture like America's, his attacks on globalization are hardly unique worldwide: Britain's exit from the European Union and rising authoritarianism in once-stalwart democracies like Turkey, the Philippines, and Hungary have each derived, to a certain degree, from anger about globalization and economic elitism.
One country which has so far resisted this trend is China, which should probably come as little surprise — arguably no major economy in the world has benefited more from globalization.
But Ian Bremmer , one of America's most trenchant geopolitical analysts, says that the rest of the world cannot afford to rely on Beijing to sustain the global economy forever. In this excerpt from his new book Us Vs.
Them: The Failures of Globalism , Bremmer explains why China's remarkable success story may soon encounter serious roadblocks. For the future, the Communist Party leadership says it can educate enough people, create enough jobs, stoke enough growth, and provide enough health care to boost 50 million more from the lowest income brackets by To lock in long-term economic stability, China needs to build and bolster its own middle class, one that can afford to buy much more of those factory-made consumer products.
Success has pushed Chinese wages higher. But as pay rises, China loses the advantage that brought so many foreign companies to the country in the first place.
Even Chinese companies have begun to move production to poorer countries, particularly in Southeast Asia, where labor is cheaper. Further, the problem of inequality has been growing for years. This article examines how economic globalization has transformed China's national policy preferences.
It explores China's foreign economic policy and recent activism in regional and multilateral settings, and within geographic regions that China had minimal contact with as recently as ten years ago. China's resource endowments combined with its rapid and highly globalized growth have shaped its trade profile. The article suggests that, regardless of China's grand strategy or future intentions, its policy options have been deeply constrained by its highly globalized economy.
Asian Perspective presents critical analysis of the global, regional, and transnational issues affecting Northeast Asia.
The journal brings cogent, thought-provoking examination of the significant developments in Asia and the world and promotes a healthy exchange of ideas among scholars, students, and policymakers. One of the largest publishers in the United States, the Johns Hopkins University Press combines traditional books and journals publishing units with cutting-edge service divisions that sustain diversity and independence among nonprofit, scholarly publishers, societies, and associations.
Journals The Press is home to the largest journal publication program of any U. The Journals Division publishes 85 journals in the arts and humanities, technology and medicine, higher education, history, political science, and library science. Excess capacity first. Price wars next. Then a drop in investments. China's growth could slow sharply next year, damaging the mainland itself and neighboring countries increasingly dependent on China.
And it could hurt manufacturers worldwide if those excess goods get exported. And excess capacity could grow to 2. So far, we have advanced the following points regarding the process of globalisation in Asia. First of all, it is not true that the impact of globalisation on Asia has been largely beneficial.
Certainly, the experience of Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines, all of whom went through the cauldron of the Asian financial crisis and all of whom are now victims of the foreign-capital-intensive, low-wage, export-oriented strategy that they pioneered, suggests a more ambiguous outcome. Second, the picture about China being a beneficiary of globalisation is too simple. Tremendous inequalities, among regions, among classes, between countryside and city, are driving forward the process of Chinese high-speed growth in directions that may result in greater, rather than less, instability, with all sorts of consequences for the rest of Asia and the world.
Third, we must also nuance the picture of China's growth serving as a stimulus to the global economy. In fact, since China's strategy and that of the TNC's is not to hitch investment and growth to significantly expanding local demand but to serve as the low-wage manufacturing base for the global market, massive investment in China is significantly adding to the global problem of overcapacity, stagnation, falling prices, and falling profits.
China in my view is in fact less of a savior and more of a problem for the global economy. The picture we have drawn so far sees China as benefiting from corporate-driven globalisation only if it maintains its low-wage advantage.
The same TNCs that once invested in Southeast Asia have moved to China and are prepared to move once more if China loses its competitive edge in labor costs. This may be difficult to imagine at this point, but it cannot be warded off indefinitely if one continues to be dependent on a low-wage, export-oriented, foreign-capital dependent strategy of development.
For Southeast Asia and China, the challenge is to adopt development strategies that do not make them hostages to the calculations of transnational firms. What could be the elements of such development strategies?
First of all, a key element is to base growth on the expansion of domestic demand rather than export markets. Instead of depressing wages, this would mean raising wages and moving towards greater equality in income distribution. This means both Southeast Asia and China must cease to be low-wage manufacturing bases but expanding markets stimulating domestic industry. Second, neither Southeast Asia nor China can continue on the path of high-speed growth without continuing to incur the tremendous ecological devastation that has accompanied this strategy.
Growth rates need to be significantly moderated, and this is only possible if there are policies that promote the equitable sharing of a more moderate expansion of the economy. A strategy of sustainable development would also put agriculture back into the center of the development process, which would mean moving away from the policies of liberalization and benign neglect that are currently dominant.
Third, if China has any key lesson for Southeast Asia, it is the importance of strong state leadership of the development process. A state capable of disciplining foreign capital and using it to achieve national priorities is more essential than ever.
Fourth, for Southeast Asia, in light of the competition posed by China, the EU, and the United States at a global level, it is important to be serious about regional integration.
To expect to survive as national economies without becoming part of a larger economic bloc coordinating policies in trade, finance, technology, investment, and development is becoming increasingly unrealistic in a world where big economic blocs become the key players.
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